In Inspectioneering's first whiteboard discussion video, Editor-in-Chief Greg Alvarado explains in a few minutes the impact of uncertainty on risk analysis and how it should be handled according to API RP 581 methodology: "How much confidence do I need to have in what I believe to be the true damage state of the equipment?" The risk threshold or risk target (there may be other targets, such as a damage factor target) determines when more information is needed to lower the calculated risk, assuming it is possible (i.e., the equipment is not actually nearing the end of its useful life). API RP 581 artificially reduces or increases the damage factor (associated with the probability of failure) when data is not available. This is typical of the Bayesian approach to handling uncertainty. The intent is to require investment in inspections or other risk reduction measures, such as installing liner or paneling or upgrading building materials, only when truly necessary.

Please take the opportunity to connect with your friends and family and share this video with them if you find it useful.