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Guaranteed value of the standard package
Each pack contains 1 rare and 7 common/uncommon cards.
All 6 packs contain 1 uncommon and 1 rare wildcard. (1/6 per pack 0.17)
Every 10 packages give 1 golden package, which is equivalent to 6 rare packages (6/10 per package 0.6)
Rare cards in a pack are equal to 1 0.17 0.6 1.77
Number of common/uncommon cards in a pack: 7 0.17 7.17
5 packs are 5 x 1.77 8.85 rare
and 5 x 7.17 35.85 common/uncommon cards
If a quick draft costs 5,000 gold, it must offer more value.
Quick Drafts offer an average of 6-7 rares and about 45 common/uncommon cards, including the free reward pack.
Add to that the value of the 300 gems as a reward, which is 1.5 packs or 2.7 rare and 10.8 common/uncommon cards. This gives the Quick Draft a value of 8.7-9.7 rare and 55.8 common/uncommon cards, which is slightly higher than the guaranteed value when buying packs.
If you pay for a Quick Draft with gems, the equivalent value is 3.5 packages, which
3.5 x 1.77 6,195 rare
3.5 x 7.17 25,095 common/uncommon cards
Added to this is the value of the reward gems. A Quick Draft entry paid in gems costs only 2.25 packages, which
2.25 x 1.77 3.9825 rare
2.25 x 7.17 16.1325 common/uncommon cards
This makes a Quick Draft paid for with gold slightly better and a Quick Draft paid for with gems significantly better, assuming no card duplication and we ignore the value of wildcards.
The biggest difference is the duplication protection you get from packs and the fact that they can give you additional wildcards, an advantage that becomes greater the closer you get to completing the set.
Let me know what you think in the comments below…
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